On Friday, 19 December 2025, His Excellency, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, GCFR, presented the 2026 Appropriation Bill to a Joint Session of the National Assembly in Abuja. The speech, titled “Budget of Consolidation, Renewed Resilience and Shared Prosperity,” marks a pivotal moment in Nigeria’s ongoing economic reform journey. This analysis expands on the key themes, figures, and strategies outlined, providing crucial context to understand their implications for the nation’s future.
PROTOCOLS & INTRODUCTION
Addressing the Distinguished Senate President, the Rt. Honourable Speaker, Honourable Members, and Fellow Nigerians, the President framed this budget as the culmination of two and a half years of foundational, though often painful, reforms. He acknowledged the sacrifices made by families and businesses but positioned the 2026 budget as the vehicle to transition the economy “from survival to growth.” This framing is critical; it signals a shift from stabilization policies to a growth-focused agenda, aiming to translate macroeconomic gains into tangible improvements in living standards.
THE CONTEXT: MEASURABLE GAINS FROM DIFFICULT REFORMS
The speech highlighted several positive economic indicators, evidence used to justify the reform path:
1) Growth: GDP growth increased to 3.98% in Q3 2025.
2) Inflation: A significant decline from 24.23% (March 2025) to 14.45% (November 2025), attributed to stabilizing food/energy prices and tighter monetary policy.
3) Oil & Revenue: Improved oil production and a major expansion in non-oil revenues through better tax administration.
4) Investor Confidence & Reserves: Returning capital inflows and external reserves at a 7-year high of ~$47 billion, providing a robust import cover buffer.
However, the President candidly addressed budget execution challenges from 2025, where only 61% of revenue and 60% of expenditure targets were met. Crucially, capital releases for 2025 were low (17.7%) due to a focus on completing 2024 projects. This admission sets the stage for his central pledge for 2026: “stronger discipline in budget execution.” Directives have been issued to key finance officials to ensure strict adherence to appropriated details and timelines, a direct response to past implementation gaps.
REVENUE MOBILIZATION: A ZERO-TOLERANCE APPROACH
A standout section detailed an aggressive plan to boost government revenue. Beyond new tax acts and oil sector reforms, the President issued a stern directive to Government-Owned Enterprises (GOEs) to meet their revenue targets. The strategy involves end-to-end digitization—standardized e-collections, automated reconciliation, and real-time dashboards—to seal leakages. This is not just policy; it’s a performance management ultimatum where revenue targets will be core to institutional scorecards. The message is clear: Nigeria can no longer afford underperforming agencies.
THE 2026 BUDGET AT A GLANCE: NUMBERS & PRIORITIES
The budget is anchored on conservative assumptions: oil at $64.85/barrel, production at 1.84 million barrels/day, and an exchange rate of ₦1,400/$. The key aggregates tell a story of ambitious spending with a continued deficit:
· Total Revenue: ₦34.33 trillion
· Total Expenditure: ₦58.18 trillion
· Deficit: ₦23.85 trillion (4.28% of GDP)
· Capital Expenditure: ₦26.08 trillion (a significant portion, emphasizing infrastructure)
· Debt Servicing: ₦15.52 trillion (a critical recurring cost)
SECTORAL ALLOCATIONS: THE RENEWED HOPE AGENDA IN ACTION
The budget allocates funds to interconnected national priorities:
1) Defence & Security (₦5.41 trillion): The top allocation underscores its role as the “foundation of development.” The speech announced a profound shift: a new national counterterrorism doctrine and security architecture. Any armed non-state actor will be classified as a terrorist, targeting bandits, militias, and their financiers under a unified command. This represents a significant hardening of the state’s security posture.
2) Education (₦3.52 trillion) & Health (₦2.48 trillion): Highlighted achievements include the Nigerian Education Loan Fund supporting 788,000 students. The health sector received a boost with a noted 6% of the budget and a new $500 million partnership with the U.S. government.
3) Infrastructure (₦3.56 trillion): Aimed at enabling economic productivity and job creation.
ECONOMIC CATALYSTS: AGRICULTURE & “NIGERIA FIRST”
The budget outlines a concrete agricultural plan: the Bank of Agriculture aims to cultivate one million hectares via seven regional hubs, focusing on mechanization, storage, and finance for smallholders. This is a direct food security and job creation strategy. Furthermore, the “Nigeria First” procurement policy mandates MDAs to prioritize Nigerian-made goods and local companies. This protectionist policy aims to stimulate domestic industry, foster innovation, and reduce import dependency.
THE THREE COMMITMENTS FOR 2026: ACCOUNTABILITY AS THE CORE
President Tinubu concluded by framing 2026 around three practical commitments:
1) Better Revenue Mobilization (through the efficiency drives mentioned).
2) Better Spending (prioritizing completable, measurable projects).
3) Better Accountability (strengthening procurement discipline and monitoring).
He emphasized that the most significant budget is “the one we deliver,” shifting focus from announcement to implementation. The speech is a call for partnership with the Legislature, leveraging the resilience of Nigerians to deliver the “Renewed Hope Agenda.”
In essence, the 2026 Budget is a strategic document seeking to lock in stabilization gains and pivot toward inclusive growth. Its success hinges on two unprecedented challenges: the rigorous execution of its revenue mobilization and security strategies, and the disciplined implementation of its capital projects to ensure the promised prosperity becomes a tangible reality for all citizens.
Bola Ahmed Tinubu, GCFR
President, Commander-in-Chief of The Armed Forces,
Federal Republic of Nigeria
