By EricJames Ochigbo
Abuja, Dec. 19, 2025
In a decisive address to a joint session of the National Assembly, President Bola Tinubu unveiled a stark new security doctrine, framing the 2026 Appropriation Bill as the financial bedrock for a “ruthless crackdown” on armed groups and their enablers. The presentation of the N58.18 trillion budget was less a fiscal outline and more a declaration of a strategic war on the complex ecosystem of violence plaguing Nigeria.
Tinubu’s message was unequivocal: “We will show no mercy.” He declared that all armed groups operating outside state authority—from bandits and militias to kidnappers and foreign-linked mercenaries—would now be uniformly designated and treated as terrorists. This represents a significant doctrinal shift, potentially streamlining legal and military responses but also carrying profound implications for conflict classification and international engagement.
Beyond Hardware: A “Holistic Redesign” of National Security
The president moved beyond mere promises of increased firepower, announcing a fundamental “reset” of the national security architecture. The proposed “new national counterterrorism doctrine” is anchored on four pillars:
- Unified Command: Aimed at dismantling the silos that have often hampered joint operations between the Army, Air Force, Navy, Police, and intelligence agencies.
- Intelligence-Driven Policing & Operations: A shift from reactive, force-based responses to proactive missions fueled by data, surveillance, and human intelligence.
- Community Stability: Recognizing that lasting security requires addressing the local grievances, economic despair, and social fractures that armed groups exploit for recruitment and sanctuary.
- Counter-Insurgency: A focused approach on dismantling the ideological and logistical networks that sustain prolonged rebellions.
This holistic approach suggests a learned critique of past strategies that were overly militarized and neglected the human terrain.
The 2026 Budget: Funding the Fight with Strings Attached
The financial commitment is substantial. Of the N58.18 trillion total, N5.41 trillion is allocated to Defence and Security, with an additional N3.56 trillion for Infrastructure—a sector Tinubu explicitly linked to security, noting that “without adequate security and infrastructure, investment will not thrive.”
However, the President attached a critical condition to this spending: accountability for outcomes. He stressed that “every naira allocated to security… must result in improved safety” and that “security spending must deliver measurable results.” This demand for tangible returns on security investment is a direct challenge to the security establishment, hinting at potential performance-based funding and audits in the future.
Targeting the Lifeblood: Financiers and Facilitators
Perhaps the most significant escalation was the explicit threat to pursue not just gunmen, but their backers. Tinubu vowed to “go after all those who perpetrate violence… along with those who finance and facilitate their evil schemes.” This expands the battlefield to include:
– Sponsors: Politicians, business elites, or individuals providing funds.
– Facilitators: Those supplying logistics, weapons, or intelligence.
– Harbourers: Communities or traditional rulers offering safe haven.
Success here depends on a robust financial intelligence unit (NFIU) and a judiciary willing to convict high-profile individuals based on complex evidence, areas where Nigeria has historically struggled.
Context and Challenges: The Road Ahead
While the rhetoric is forceful, the path is fraught with challenges. A “ruthless” military crackdown risks civilian casualties and human rights abuses, which could further alienate communities. The promised “technology-enabled surveillance” must be balanced with data privacy concerns. Furthermore, the budget allocations for Education (N3.52 trillion) and Health (N2.48 trillion), while significant, must be effectively deployed to address the root causes of insecurity—poverty, unemployment, and lack of opportunity—that Tinubu himself acknowledged.
In essence, the 2026 budget speech has set a new, more aggressive tone. Tinubu has framed the coming year as a test of the state’s will and capacity to not only confront armed actors in the field but to dismantle the entire network that sustains them. The nation now watches to see if the ruthless new doctrine will be matched by ruthless, yet judicious and effective, implementation.
(Edited by Kevin Okunzuwa)
