By Yunus Yusuf
Lagos, Dec. 20, 2025 – A leading power sector expert has cautioned that Nigeria’s recent improvements in grid stability represent a fleeting opportunity that must be seized with comprehensive, structural reforms, warning that tariff adjustments alone are a superficial fix for deep-seated problems.
Dr. Olukayode Akinrolabu, Chairman of the Customer Consultative Forum for Festac and Satellite Town, stated in an exclusive interview that the notable absence of a total system collapse in the first quarter of 2025 provides a crucial window to address the foundational flaws plaguing the electricity value chain.
“This stability is a positive signal, but it is not yet true reliability,” Akinrolabu explained. “We are seeing the grid hold together, but beneath the surface, critical issues like frequency instability, where the system operates outside safe limits daily, and chronic load rejection by Distribution Companies (DisCos) continue to undermine consistent power supply to end-users.”
The Tariff Myth: Why Higher Prices Don’t Guarantee Better Service
Akinrolabu acknowledged the intent behind recent tariff reviews aimed at improving sector revenue but delivered a stark critique: “Tariff adjustments are a blunt instrument. Without accurate customer network mapping and effective consumption tracking, they simply cannot resolve the sector’s deep-rooted problems. You cannot bill efficiently for a service you cannot accurately measure or deliver consistently.”
He pinpointed the metering crisis as the central efficiency challenge. With only 46.98% of customers metered, millions remain on estimated billing, a system that fuels customer disputes, erodes trust, and guarantees revenue loss. “Estimated billing is the antithesis of a commercial market. It is guesswork that alienates the very customers who are supposed to fund the sector’s growth,” he said.
The Revenue Black Hole: ATC&C Losses and Internal Sabotage
The expert presented alarming data on financial performance. Average collection efficiency across DisCos stands at 74.39%, with some operators performing far worse. More critically, Aggregate Technical, Commercial and Collection (ATC&C) losses remain cripplingly high at 39.61%, nearly double the regulatory target of 20.54%.
“These losses are a hemorrhage,” Akinrolabu stated. “They are not just technical losses from old lines. A significant portion is commercial—stemming from weak customer data systems, unmetered customers, and, frankly, internal sabotage and corruption within the utilities themselves. This is where operational discipline is non-negotiable.”
Generation to Transmission: A Chain of Constraints
The problems extend far beyond distribution:
- Gas Dependency & Vandalism: Nigeria’s over-reliance on gas-fired plants is a critical vulnerability. Most plants operate below 50% capacity due to supply shortages, pricing disputes, and relentless pipeline vandalism, which acts as a recurring stranglehold on generation.
- Aging Infrastructure: The transmission network remains a weak link, unable to wheel all available power, while aging distribution assets lead to technical losses and poor quality of supply.
- Regulatory & Investment Gap: Weak regulatory enforcement fails to hold operators accountable, and limited investment, particularly in gas infrastructure and network expansion, stifles growth.
A Blueprint for Consolidating Gains: Reforms Beyond the Meter
To transform momentary stability into lasting progress, Akinrolabu called for a synchronized reform agenda:
- Gas Sector Overhaul: Review gas pricing to attract upstream investment, expand gas pipeline infrastructure, enhance pipeline security through community engagement and technology, and settle legacy gas debts to restore supplier confidence.
- DisCo Operational Mandates: Enforce mandatory, accurate customer network mapping and accelerated mass metering. Tie DisCo performance incentives directly to reductions in ATC&C losses and collection efficiency.
- Data-Driven Governance: Implement robust, transparent data systems for tracking energy flow, consumption, and revenue from generation to collection, closing loopholes for manipulation.
- Strengthened Regulation: Empower the regulator with greater enforcement tools to sanction underperformance and protect consumer rights, thereby restoring market confidence for investors.
In conclusion, Akinrolabu stressed that the path forward requires moving beyond isolated fixes. “The grid stability we see is the calm we must use to prepare for the storm. The real work is in the unglamorous, technical details of mapping networks, securing gas, collecting revenue, and enforcing standards. Tariffs are just one line on a balance sheet that is currently bleeding red ink. Without these foundational reforms, recent gains will prove to be just another mirage in Nigeria’s long power sector struggle.”
(Edited by Olawunmi Ashafa)
