Nigeria’s economic trajectory, as revealed by recent data, presents a paradox of modest growth overshadowed by unmet potential. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported a 3.98 per cent Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expansion in the third quarter of 2025. While this reflects a year-on-year increase in the output of goods and services, it falls short of the Federal Government’s 4.6 per cent target for the year and is a far cry from the estimated 7 per cent annual growth needed to sustainably lift millions out of poverty and drive meaningful development.
This growth gap—between the current performance, the government’s target, and the nation’s needs—has ignited urgent discussions among economists. In interviews with the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN), experts underscored that bridging this gap requires moving beyond broad macroeconomic policies to deliberate, targeted interventions in specific, high-impact sectors. The consensus is clear: achieving transformative growth demands a surgical approach to economic strategy.
Beyond Bailouts: Re-Industrializing for Domestic Resilience
Prof. Sherifdeen Tella of Babcock University advocates for a strategic revival of the industrial sector, framing it as a national imperative. His call for government to “empower domestic production firms in critical areas” goes beyond simple loans. It envisions a structured, long-term partnership akin to strategic sovereign investment. The reference to the 2008 U.S. bailout is instructive—it was not merely a rescue, but a calculated intervention to protect systemic economic pillars. For Nigeria, this could mean providing patient capital, production-linked incentives, and guaranteed offtake agreements for firms in sectors like pharmaceuticals, basic chemicals, and manufacturing inputs to reduce import dependency.
Prof. Tella crucially links industrial growth to foundational infrastructure, specifically energy. Subsidising electricity and petroleum for productive sectors (as opposed to blanket subsidies) can dramatically lower production costs, enhancing the competitiveness of Nigerian goods. Furthermore, his point on Niger Delta stability is a stark reminder that geopolitical risk remains a direct tax on the economy. Sustainable peace is not just a social goal but a prerequisite for unlocking the full potential of the oil and gas sector, which still provides critical foreign exchange earnings needed to fund broader diversification.
Creating the Fertile Ground: Stability, Security, and Strategic Minerals
Echoing the need for a conducive environment, Prof. Ndubisi Nwokoma of Caleb University identifies macroeconomic stability and security as non-negotiable precursors to growth. “Investor confidence” is an abstract term until it is grounded in predictable exchange rates, manageable inflation, and the physical safety of assets and personnel. Without addressing these, even the most attractive sectoral incentives will fail to draw significant long-term capital.
Prof. Nwokoma introduces a forward-looking dimension: the strategic development of Nigeria’s rare earth minerals. This is not traditional mining. Rare earth elements are critical for the global tech and green energy revolutions (used in batteries, smartphones, and wind turbines). His recommendation for public-private partnerships with expert firms is vital because these resources require sophisticated, capital-intensive refining. Getting this right could position Nigeria not just as a raw material exporter, but as a participant in high-value global supply chains, earning premium revenues and fostering advanced technical skills.
Transforming Agriculture from Subsistence to Economic Powerhouse
Mr. Okechukwu Unegbu, former CIBN President, brings the focus to agriculture, but with a modern twist. Citing the FAO’s recommendation of allocating 10 per cent of the national budget to the sector, he highlights a chronic under-investment. The goal is mechanization and value-chain development. Investing in agriculture today means funding irrigation schemes, building climate-resilient storage and cold-chain logistics, and establishing processing hubs that can turn tomatoes into paste, cassava into industrial starch, and grains into packaged foods.
Incentivizing value addition, as Unegbu suggests, is the key to capturing wealth within Nigeria. It creates agro-allied industries, generates manufacturing jobs, reduces post-harvest losses, and increases export value. A modernized agricultural sector also has profound stabilizing effects, curbing food inflation, conserving foreign exchange, and creating rural employment that alleviates urban migration pressures.
The Path Forward: Integration and Implementation
The recommendations from these experts are not isolated solutions; they are interconnected strands of a coherent growth strategy. Energy subsidies (Tella) lower costs for factories and agro-processors (Unegbu). Security (Nwokoma) protects farmlands, mining sites, and industrial clusters. Revenue from a stabilized oil sector and strategic mineral exports can fund the investments in agriculture and industry.
The challenge for policymakers is to integrate these sectoral priorities into a synchronized plan, backed by consistent policy and rigorous implementation. The 3.98 per cent GDP growth is a starting point, not a destination. By acting on these targeted, expert-backed interventions, Nigeria can translate its modest expansion into the broad-based, sustainable, and accelerated growth its population demands and its potential deserves.
Edited by Olawunmi Ashafa
