President Bola Tinubu’s presentation of the N58.18 trillion 2026 Appropriation Bill, christened the ‘Budget of Consolidation, Renewed Resilience and Shared Prosperity,’ arrives at a critical juncture for Nigeria. It follows years of politically painful reforms—notably the removal of fuel subsidies and the unification of exchange rates—which have squeezed household incomes and widened the chasm between the rich and the poor. The central question is whether this fiscal plan can transition from stabilising a troubled economy to actively bridging one of the nation’s most persistent and destabilising divides: its profound wealth inequality.
Analysts frame this budget not as a document of bold new experiments, but as a deliberate attempt to consolidate and deepen earlier policy choices. The administration’s stated focus is on fiscal discipline, enhanced revenue mobilisation, and structural reforms. As one analyst noted, “The government is doubling down on efforts to strengthen public finances, reduce waste, and direct scarce resources toward sectors with the greatest multiplier effects on growth and livelihoods.” This shift from ‘shock therapy’ to ‘consolidation’ indicates a recognition that sustainable growth requires embedding past reforms into a coherent, long-term strategy.
Decoding the Numbers: Priorities and Trade-Offs
The budget’s headline figures reveal its ambitions and constraints:
- Total Expenditure: N58.18 trillion
- Projected Revenue: N34.33 trillion
- Deficit: N23.85 trillion (4.28% of GDP)
- Debt Servicing: N15.52 trillion
- Capital Expenditure: N26.08 trillion (a significant highlight)
- Recurrent (Non-Debt) Expenditure: N15.25 trillion
The sectoral allocations provide the clearest insight into the government’s priorities for tackling inequality:
- Defence & Security (N5.41 trillion): Positioned as the “bedrock of development,” this massive allocation aims to modernise armed forces and enhance policing. The implicit argument is that without security, economic activity and investment—essential for job creation—cannot flourish.
- Infrastructure (N3.56 trillion): Targeted at transport, power, and housing. Reliable infrastructure lowers the cost of doing business, enables market access for farmers and SMEs, and creates construction jobs, directly impacting economic mobility.
- Education (N3.52 trillion) & Health (N2.48 trillion): These are critical investments in human capital. The mention of over 418,000 students supported by the Education Loan Fund is a direct, if nascent, tool for improving access and opportunity. Health spending at 6% of the budget, however, remains below the 15% Abuja Declaration target, highlighting a persistent gap.
The record-high capital expenditure is particularly noteworthy. As Senate Leader Opeyemi Bamidele stated, it targets “growth-driving sectors” to “stimulate private investment, create jobs, and strengthen food and energy security.” This is the budget’s primary engine for theoretically bridging the wealth gap: fostering a productive, job-creating economy.
The Crucial Bridge: From Allocation to Inclusive Outcomes
While the allocations signal intent, history is littered with well-intentioned Nigerian budgets that failed to translate into inclusive growth. Several factors will determine if 2026 is different:
- Revenue Generation: The ambitious N34.33 trillion revenue projection hinges on the success of the new National Tax Acts and oil & gas reforms. If these fail, the deficit widens, capital projects stall, and debt servicing consumes more resources, crippling the budget’s developmental goals.
- Implementation & The “Single Budget” Pledge: President Tinubu’s pledge to end the “rollover culture” and operate a single budget from April 2026 is potentially revolutionary. It addresses a core dysfunction: the habit of running multiple, overlapping budgets that lead to abandoned projects and unpaid contracts. Effective implementation of this pledge is a non-negotiable prerequisite for tangible results.
- Inflation and Cost of Living: While the government cites moderating inflation (down to 14.45% in Nov. 2025 from 24.23%), prices remain painfully high for average Nigerians. The budget’s success in improving “shared prosperity” will be judged not by macroeconomic statistics alone, but by whether food, transport, and energy become more affordable for the masses.
- Leakage and Corruption: Substantial allocations to security and infrastructure are historically vulnerable to mismanagement. Without transparent procurement and robust oversight, these funds will not translate into public goods that benefit the broader population.
As Speaker Abbas Tajudeen cautioned, lessons from past volatility necessitate “realism, discipline and revenue diversification.” The budget’s value in bridging the wealth gap, therefore, lies less in its numbers and more in the government’s ability to execute with integrity, focus, and a relentless eye on outcomes that reach the bottom of the pyramid.
Expert Verdict: A Framework, Not a Guarantee
Legislators like Sen. Adamu Aliero have praised the “impressive and unprecedented” capital allocation, while finance committee chairman Sani Musa linked the large debt servicing provision to restoring investor confidence ahead of an election cycle. The Minister of Information, Mohammed Idris, stressed the budget’s design to move “beyond promises to practical implementation.”
Ultimately, the 2026 budget provides a necessary framework for consolidation and targeted investment. It acknowledges the right sectors—security, infrastructure, human capital. However, a budget alone cannot bridge a wealth gap deepened by structural issues, weak institutions, and global shocks. It can only create the conditions. The bridge will be built not by allocations, but by flawless execution, unwavering accountability, and complementary policies that ensure growth is labour-intensive and broadly shared. As the experts concluded, the next few months of implementation will tell if this is truly a turning point or another missed opportunity for shared prosperity.
***If used, credit the News Agency of Nigeria and the writer, Naomi Sharang.
