As 2025 drew to a close, the Armed Forces of Nigeria (AFN) presented a complex annual report card: one of measurable tactical gains achieved under immense and persistent strategic pressures. The year was defined by intensified, multi-theatre operations against a hydra-headed security crisis encompassing terrorism, banditry, separatist violence, and economic sabotage. This analysis moves beyond the official statistics to examine the underlying dynamics, strategic shifts, and the critical challenges that will define Nigeria’s security trajectory into 2026 and beyond.
The 2025 Operational Landscape: A Data-Driven Overview
The Defence Headquarters (DHQ) reported sustained activity across all six geopolitical zones. The headline figures for the year were significant: troops neutralised numerous terrorist and criminal elements, arrested over 4,300 suspects, secured the surrender of more than 1,600 insurgents, and rescued thousands of kidnapped victims. According to the Chief of Defence Staff (CDS), Gen. Olufemi Oluyede, these outcomes stemmed from “improved coordination, effective intelligence utilisation, and the resilience of our troops.” However, he crucially noted that “winning the confidence of the people is as important as winning on the battlefield,” highlighting a growing military recognition of the non-kinetic dimension of modern conflict.
Theatre-by-Theatre Analysis: Tactical Successes and Enduring Vulnerabilities
North-East (Operation HADIN KAI): The primary counter-insurgency theatre saw sustained pressure on Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP). The strategy focused on degrading command structures and denying freedom of movement. While Theatre Commander Maj.-Gen. Abdulsalam Abubakar reported disrupted terrorist control and the return of some civil activity, the threat persisted in the form of isolated attacks. The gain here is the containment of large-scale territorial conquests; the pressure is the insurgents’ evolution into a resilient, networked guerrilla force.
North-West (Operation FANSAN YAMMA): This region grappled with a vicious cocktail of armed banditry, kidnapping, and a worrying spillover of transnational terrorist infiltration from the Sahel. A pivotal moment was the execution of precision air strikes against Islamic State-linked enclaves in Sokoto State in late December, conducted with international partners. This operation, while tactically successful, underscored a profound strategic pressure: the limited capacity to fully secure porous international borders against regional jihadist movement. [[PEAI_MEDIA_X]]
North-Central (Operations ENDURING PEACE & WHIRL STROKE): Here, the military confronted perhaps the most complex security dynamics—a mix of terrorism spillover, banditry, communal violence, and rampant arms trafficking. While troops made arrests and disrupted supply routes, the military openly acknowledged that deep-seated issues like farmer-herder clashes and small arms proliferation remained largely unaddressed. This theatre exemplifies the limit of purely military solutions to socio-economic and political conflicts.
South-South (Operation DELTA SAFE): The focus was economic security, with troops aiming to curb oil theft and illegal refining. Success was quantified in seized products valued at over ₦8.9 billion and hundreds of destroyed illegal sites. However, the sheer scale of these numbers reveals the corresponding pressure: a vast, entrenched criminal ecosystem that continuously adapts, representing a direct hemorrhage of national revenue and a severe environmental crisis.
South-East (Operation UDO KA): Operations targeted the proscribed Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) and its Eastern Security Network (ESN). The DHQ cited reduced attacks and degraded capacity, partly attributed to legal actions against key figures. The gain is a relative calm; the pressure is the risk of conflating military action with the political and grievance-resolution measures needed for lasting peace in the region.
Force Multipliers and Strategic Enablers
The integration of air power and intelligence was a consistent theme. The Nigerian Air Force provided critical surveillance and precision strike capabilities, enhancing tactical responsiveness. More importantly, 2025 saw increased emphasis on inter-agency collaboration and intelligence fusion, aiming to create a more unified security architecture. This represents a necessary evolution from isolated service-specific actions to a more joint, system-wide approach.
The Domestic Defence Imperative: A Critical Crossroads
A significant, yet often underreported, narrative from 2025 was the vigorous advocacy for a robust military-industrial complex. Engr. Kola Balogun, General Secretary of the Defence Industries Association of Nigeria (DIAN), framed local defence production as a strategic necessity. He argued that Nigeria’s “peculiar” security challenges require “locally developed solutions,” from weapons to spare parts. While commending the government’s “Nigeria First” policy, he lamented the “low patronage of locally produced defence equipment.” This highlights a crucial gap: between policy intent and procurement reality. Building a domestic defence capability is not just about economic savings; it’s about strategic autonomy, tailored solutions for local terrain, and guaranteed operational readiness without foreign logistical constraints. The road ahead must involve concrete steps to bridge this gap.
Expert Perspectives: Mixed Assessments and Sobering Realities
The external airstrikes in Sokoto elicited mixed reactions. Military scholar Dr. Sani Abubakar viewed them as effective but symbolically damaging, stating, “Security is the government’s paramount duty, and they shouldn’t surrender it to external powers.” His comment touches a nerve regarding national sovereignty and self-reliance. His subsequent challenge to the military—to prioritize ending mass kidnappings and highway attacks within 100 days—reflects public impatience for tangible security in everyday life, a metric beyond battlefield neutralizations.
The Road Ahead: Consolidation, Adaptation, and the Whole-of-Nation Approach
The gains of 2025 are real but fragile. The pressures are structural: adaptive adversaries, porous borders, arms proliferation, and underlying socio-economic drivers of conflict. The military’s stated focus for 2026—consolidating gains and refining strategies—is apt but insufficient on its own.
The true path forward requires a whole-of-nation approach. This means:
1. Doubling down on the non-kinetic: Linking military operations to enhanced governance, economic opportunity, and community trust-building in post-conflict areas.
2. Operationalizing defence industrialization: Translating the “Nigeria First” policy into prioritized procurement contracts for qualified local firms, fostering true strategic autonomy.
3. Deepening civil-military integration: Moving beyond public relations to genuine collaboration where community intelligence and military response are seamlessly linked.
4. Addressing the regional dimension: Strengthening cross-border security cooperation to manage the spillover of threats from the Sahel and Gulf of Guinea.
In conclusion, 2025 demonstrated that the Nigerian military can achieve tactical dominance in defined spaces. However, transforming isolated security gains into sustained, nationwide peace is a longer, more complex campaign. It is a campaign that must be fought not just in the forests of the North-East or the creeks of the Niger Delta, but in the corridors of power, in the nation’s industrial policy, and in the hearts and minds of its citizens. The road ahead depends on recognizing this broader battlefield. [[PEAI_MEDIA_X]]
Analysis built upon reporting by Sumaila Ogbaje, NAN.
